‘Star Wars: Mandalorian & Grogu’ Now Seizing $97M-$98M 4-Day Opening And ‘A-‘ CinemaScore; ‘Obsession’ Scares Up +26% – Memorial Day Box Office
SUNDAY 12:49 AM: Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu after an estimated $25.5M Saturday is heading to a $97M-$98M 4-day. That Saturday is a tad higher than Solo: A Star Wars Story‘s $24.6M. Know that $100M 4-day is still in play. Many rivals see it there, but Disney always…
SUNDAY 12:49 AM: Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu after an estimated $25.5M Saturday is heading to a $97M-$98M 4-day. That Saturday is a tad higher than Solo: A Star Wars Story‘s $24.6M. Know that $100M 4-day is still in play. Many rivals see it there, but Disney always has a better sense of their numbers, not to mention if they don’t see it, they won’t call it. We’re hearing from sources that international is around $69M, however that figure is unverified by Disney. That would bring the Jon Favreau directed movie to north of its $160M WW forecast, around $167M WW on the high-end.
Floating higher are Focus Features’ Obsession with an estimated $8.35M Saturday on its way to a, wow, $27M 4-day. 3-day is $21.5M, +26%. Lionsgate’s Michael is also coming in higher with a 4-day of $26M+, after an estimated $7.75M Saturday. A Memorial Day weekend that’s well north of $209M? That’s nothing to complain about.
SATURDAY AM: Those who’ve watched Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu are giving it an A- CinemaScore, the same grade as Solo: A Star Wars Story, with definite recommend on PostTrak that’s staying steady at 71%. All of this pegs out to $33M in previews and first Friday yesterday for what’s shaping up to be a $91M-$96M 4-day. Rivals are calling the Jon Favreau-directed movie at $100M over the 4-day holiday, but it ain’t there, until its there. In the old days (meaning pre-Covid), Disney would softball weekend forecasts, but the studio is pretty much on the mark post-Covid, not underestimating for bloated headlines sake. The three-day is between $81M-$82M.
Diversity demos for Mandalorian and Grogu are 52% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black, 8% Asian American and 6% Native American/other. Of those ticket buyers going to watch the Baby Yoda movie, 68% of them are Disney+ subscribers, more than other any other streaming subscriber in the theater (Netflix subs are attending at 62%).
Imax and PLFs are repping 48% of ticket sales so far with Imax accounting for 16% alone and 3D pulling in an 8% share. Mandalorian and Grogu is playing in West, Mountain, Midwest, and Western Canada where 47.4% of their gross is coming compared to a norm of 45.3% for all other titles in the marketplace. AMC Disney Springs in Orlando is the pic’s leading location with close to $133K. Kids under 12 gave it a 95% positive and a 54% must-see right away; good enough for the nag factor to parents, I’m told.
By the way, while Star Wars fans might not be all in their glory about Mandalorian and Grogu with numbers here on par with Solo: A Star Wars Story, rival studios aren’t crapping on it. Who the hell doesn’t want a 4-day $90M-plus opening at the Memorial Day box office in the post-Covid era? Furiosa, these bounty hunters are not.
As one talent rep told us heading into the weekend, “Sometimes, these movies make more in merchandise than the actual movie.” Star Wars is one of the top five toy sellers annually with over $1 billion in retail sales. Grogu toys, since the launch of the Disney+ series, count 13 million toys sold during their first two years of release.
The 4-day holiday weekend for all movies is coming at $209M which is -37% off last year’s record of $330.1M.
Meanwhile, Focus Features and Blumhouse-Atomic Monster’s Obsession is looking to push the King of Pop out of second place with an amazing +16% hike in its 3-day for a near $20M second weekend and 4-day of $24.8M and 11-day cume of $55.1M. If those numbers stick, Obsession will be +18% ahead of Longlegs at the same point in time (ended its run at $74.3M stateside) but -17% behind Focus Features’ highest grossing horror pic of all-time, Nosferatu (which was juiced by a Christmas launch, finaling at $95.6M domestic). Definite recommend has increased to 74% from 70% last weekend. More women are showing up now at 51% versus 41% in the pic’s opening weekend, however guys like this battle of the sexes movie a little more, with a slightly higher definite recommend, 75% to 73% (still overall, awesome). Very strong across the board quads, which is a studio’s dream, with men over 25 at 27%, women under 25 at 26%, women over 25 at 25% and guys under 25 at 22%. The 18-34 bunch is massive at 75%. The 18-24 set has now outpaced the 25-34 set, 40% to 35%. Best grades are women under 25 at 91% followed by men over 25 at 90%. Is there an Obsession 2? Curry Barker mentioned on the press tour he’d be open to a TV series with a new wish every episode.
Michael still has moves around the globe, where he’s nearing $800M ($788.8M by EOD Monday) with fifth frame take of $18.5M over 3-days (excellent -29% hold), and $23.6M over four days. The running domestic take by end the end of the holiday will stand at $317.8M.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Lucasfilm/Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is on a journey similar to the 2018 Memorial Day pic Solo: A Star Wars Story.
Friday and previews is looking like $34M for the Jon Favreau-directed feature (Solo did $35.3M), which will translate to about $80M 3-day and $90M over four days at 4,300 theaters. Some rivals believe the Pedro Pascal movie has a shot at $100M, but don’t count your Jawas yet. Solo, as we told you, opened to $84.4M 3-day, $103M 4-day. The audience score on Rotten Tomatoes remains fixed at 88%.
Again, the difference between this Memorial Day and last year’s is that we don’t have two tentpole openers like a year ago WITH Lilo & Stitch (record holiday start of $182.6M) and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning ($79M). Lilo & Stitch was the anomaly, and without it, well Mandalorian and Grogu is like an above-average opening for a major studio release over the holiday; not unlike Final Reckoning.
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The saving grace for this net $165M production is international but also merchandise. Disney hopes that the Force is with it for a global debut of $160M.
Demos on Thursday night for Mandalorian and Grogu were 48% over 35, and 52% under 35. Dudes leading at 67%. The faithful who showed up Thursday night gave the movie a 71% definite recommend, which is very good for word of mouth. Men over 25 showed up at 48% (85% positive grade), women over 25 at 27% gave the Favreau film its best grade at 96%, followed by men under 25 at 19% (81% positive) with women under 25 the smallest demo at 6% (and a low 76% grade).
Second still belongs to the guy who is a lover, not a fighter, that being Lionsgate’s Michael at 3,306 theaters with about $5M today, a $17M–$20M fifth weekend, easing by 23%-35%, and estimated four-day of $21M-$25M and running cume of $317.2M by EOD Monday. Ya know what, the Antoine Fuqua-directed Michael Jackson biopic has to twirl past Oppenheimer at some point (final domestic $330M).
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Third is Focus Features’ Obsession with an amazing 3-day hold of -1% or $17M and 4-day of $21M. The Curry Barker-directed horror movie is officially a summer sleeper with a running 11-day cume by Monday of $51.3M. We’ll take it. Smart, brilliant dating by Focus Features Distribution Head Lisa Bunnell.
Fourth goes to the fourth weekend of 20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 at 3,300 sites with a $3M Friday, $10M-$11M 3-day, -37% to -43%, and $13M-$14M 4-day. This will put the running cume on the high-end on Monday at $197.5M.
Fifth is looking like Amazon MGM Studios’ third weekend of Hugh Jackman comedy The Sheep Detectives with $2M today at 3,207 theaters, $7.5M-$9M for the 3-day, -8% to -20%, with anywhere from $10M-$11M for the 4-day and a running cume by Monday of $45.3M.
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Sixth is Paramount’s André Øvredal and 18Mhz horror pic Passenger with a $3M Friday/previews, $7.3M 3-day and $8.8M 4-day at 2,534 locations.
Neon’s I Love Boosters is at $1.5M today/previews, $4M 3-day, $5M for the Friday-Monday span at 1,750 sites.
UPDATED, AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu came in at $12M on the nose in Thursday previews.
In addition to 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the pic is comping to such 4-day openers and their previews as Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World ($12M previews, $100M opening last year) and 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($17.5M previews, $120.4M 4-day).
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André Øvredal’s Paramount horror pic Passenger starring Melissa Leo grossed $1.1M from Thursday paid previews across roughly 2,125 locations. The pic is expected to do $9M-$10M over 4 days. Critics are low on it at 46%, and audiences aren’t wowed at 50%. The R-rated movie’s blurb: A young couple witness a horrific accident that leaves the driver dead. They soon encounter a demonic stalker who’s impossible to outrun and follows them wherever they go.
